Author(s): Alberto Costantiello, Angelo Leogrande
We analyze the question of GDP Growth-GDPG rate in the context of Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG framework. We use World Bank data for 193 countries in the period 2011-2020 using different econometric techniques i.e., Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares-OLS. We found that GDPG rate is positively associated, among others, to “Government Effectiveness” and “Prevalence of Undernourishment” and negatively associated among others to “Unemployment” and “Research and Development Expenditure”. Furthermore, we have applied the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow method and we found the presence of four clusters in the sense of GDPG rate. Finally, we confront eight machine learning algorithms to predict the value of GDPG rate and we found that the Polynomial Regression is the best predictor. The Polynomial Regression predicts an increase of GDPG rate equal to 2.88% on average for the analysed countries.