Keywords

Agriculture, Food Security, COVID-19, Crop Production, Fishing, Forestry, Nigeria.

JEL Code Classifications

Q16, Q18, Q22, Q23, Q53, N57.

Introduction

Food insecurity in the continent of Africa, especially in Nigeria, has been a long-run issue of concern due to the less attention given to the agricultural sector, which can provide the desired remedy. When a country cannot adequately feed its citizens and does not invest heavily in sectors such as agriculture that can resolve food proficiency challenges, it gives more reason for worry. Many authors and researchers have identified the food security vacuum in Nigeria. They have stressed on the implementation of policies that can enhance food availability in the country through agricultural development. However, all suggestions emanating from the excellent empirical evidence have not yet attracted the attention of the relevant authorities. Following the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in the world with a global statistics of 3,308,503 cases, 234,112 deaths and 1,042,874 recoveries (Worldometer, 2020) of which Nigeria accounts for 1,932 patients, 58 deaths and 319 rescues (Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), 2020) as at the time of this research, the challenge of food insecurity in Nigeria became very obvious and glaring.

The lockdown to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus made it very difficult for the citizens to have sufficient food to sustain themselves due to lack of adequate prior agricultural crop production and storage of food. Unfortunately, the lockdown became ineffective in Nigeria as the citizens could not endure the scourge of hunger but continually resisted the security forces who tried to enforce the lockdown because they have to go out to look for work and food to sustain life. BBC (2020) carried out a simple experimental study on Nigerians to confirm their greatest worry for the lockdown, and statistics showed that 40% and 21% of the masses confirmed that unavailability of food for the low groups and people dying of hunger respectively, was their primary concern. It was only 1% of the population that believed that the lockdown could help to reduce the spread of COVID-19. In another development, “Following the extension of coronavirus lockdown by President Muhammadu Buhari, the Yoruba Youth Assembly has said that people of the southwest region and indeed other parts of the country were more worried about how to deal with hunger than the COVID-19 outbreak” (Akinola, 2020).

The lockdown has invincible effects on Nigerians, which constitutes about 85% informal sector operators (Omodero, 2020) whose daily foods depend on their daily activities. For instance the food vendors and other unskilled labourers who cannot feed except they go out every day to work and carry out their business. According to the Human Rights Watch (2020) “the informal sector, in which more than 80 per cent of Nigerians work, includes a wide range of occupations, from street traders, taxi drivers, tradesmen, and artisans to food vendors and hairdressers”. These daily informal sector operations which are also referred to as underground economy activities but are legitimate have remained the only means of livelihood of most Nigerian households especially in the absence of formal employment (Omodero, 2019). The palliative measures by President Buhari to relieve the masses of the economic hardship and cushion the effects of the lockdown in the country, seem not to be yielding the desired financial result, as people keep lamenting and clamouring for freedom to go out and look for food as the hunger intensifies (Ogbonnaya, 2020). The major challenge why the palliatives meant for the poor masses may not practically get to them will be lack of a functioning database of the people. No effort is made to ascertain the database of who these poor people are and where they can be located. The same issue is why all measures to boost agriculture in Nigeria keep failing. Because the farmers are majorly the poor people residing in the rural areas in Nigeria where government agencies may not be able to access due to several factors including lack of access roads. The lockdown persistence due to Coronavirus will lead to a rise in food insecurity as expressed by the Sultan of Sokoto. It will lead to more deaths in Nigeria due to hunger and not Coronavirus (Odende, 2020).

Nigeria’s dependence on oil has met with intense disappointment following the crude oil price crash from $50 as at 2019 to $10 due to the effect of COVID-19 pandemic. The former Vice President Atiku Abubakar asserts that “In Nigeria, our diversification should embrace agriculture as the primary sector earmarked for development because agriculture is a low hanging fruit, is key to ensuring food subsistence, and with the recent signing of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AFCTA), which favours Nigeria's economy greatly, Nigeria can take advantage of this to become an agricultural powerhouse in Africa” (Asadu, 2020). Following the global outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, the Nigerian oil price was initially forced down from the estimated $57 per barrel to $30 per barrel (Nwagbara, 2020). Brent crude currently trades at $25.14 as against $45/$50 before COVID-19 pandemic (Asadu, 2020). The situation led to Nigeria's 2020 budget adjustment; as a result, both the capital and the recurrent expenditure budget were eventually reduced by 20% and 25% respectively (Nwagbara, 2020). According to the Finance Minister, the material budget adjustment is to reflect the current economic realities occasioned by the global COVID-19 pandemic. The dependence on oil is such that even the budget depends on anticipated oil inflows for its implementation. Agricultural development to ensure food security has never been given preferential treatment, rather all government planning and focus have been on crude oil production and inflows. All resources that could have been channelled to other sectors of the economy are invested in crude oil production. At the same time, agriculture that should be the primary source of export and foreign currency earning is relegated to the background. Following the compulsory lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic, the prices of the scarce agricultural products skyrocket, thus, resulting to the consumption of substandard foodstuffs that have reduced nutritional importance and are less essential for the health (Mkhawani et al., 2016) of the general public.

Due to oil revenue inflows in Nigeria, government revenue allocation and expenditure budget have remained a function of what is expected from oil revenue annually. Equitable revenue allocation formula among states in Nigeria has been a bone of contention (Omodero, 2019) with the Niger Delta States agitating for increment in their derivation fund. The clamour for derivation fund increment comes from the elite among the Niger Delta inhabitants, while the ordinary people cry for development in their area (Omodero, 2018). All the agitations for resource control are basically because of the oil revenue to be controlled by a particular group of people. At the same time, agriculture which is the hallmark of livelihood in every nation is being neglected in Nigeria despite the fertile soil and well-endowed rivers the country is blessed with. The Niger Delta States traditionally are known for fishing owing to their coastal surroundings that enable the fishing profession to thrive neglected their craft in pursuit of an oil glut. The collapse of oil prices started gradually in 2015, when oil revenue decreased from N6,793.82 Billion in 2014 to N3,830.10 Billion in 2015 (CBN Statistical Bulletin, 2018). Yet, the policymakers could not read the handwriting on the wall. The former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has lamented that the era of oil revenue passed a long time ago. Still, nobody could pay attention to the crucial need to diversify the economy of Nigeria to agriculture, at least for the primary lack of food availability in the country (Asadu, 2020).

Due to the government failure to encourage the agricultural sector, the country has suffered food security challenges on every side. Many children die of malnutrition, and there has been a scarcity of nutritious food and an adequate protein for the children's bodybuilding. As a matter of fact "Consuming cheaper food products with a poor nutritive value makes it impossible for many households to eat a healthy, balanced diet” (Faber & Drimie, 2016). Covid-19 came as a surprise and widens the gap of food insecurity in Nigeria; thus, the citizens have no choice but to resist the compulsory lockdown to prevent the spread of the virus due to hunger. Based on the above backgrounds, this study aims at assessing the extent of agricultural development so far, food insecurity before COVID-19 pandemic and why the lockdown has been unbearable for Nigerians. The question is: was there food insecurity challenge before COVID-19 and why is the current agricultural output not able to cushion the effect of COVID-19 pandemic following the lockdown?

Literature Review

Conceptual Clarification

Food security subsists when the general public, always and consistently, have the physical and economic right of access to adequate, harmless, and nutritive food to meet their nutritional necessities and food penchants for a dynamic hale and hearty lifecycle (Food and Agricultural organization 1996). This characterization buttresses the variety of features of food security which embraces obtainability, right to use, consumption, and the sustaining capability. Accessibility signifies physical existence of food in sufficient quantity; availability infers effectual acquiring influence all the time; consumption reveals the request for a satisfactory amount and worth of diet consumption; and the satisfying capability denotes the sufficiency of nutriment all the time (Ogundari, 2017). Some of the pointers indicating food security at the micro-level as identified by researchers include expenses on food, dietary variability to include all nutrients required in a food, food availability as at when needed, access to food, level of education, farmland, level of financial inflows, agricultural background, possession of livestock (Crush et al., 2012; Obayelu 2013; Maziya et al., 2017; Ogundari, 2017); technical incompetence (Usman & Olagunju, 2019) among others.

Empirical Review

Crush et al. (2012) assessed the extent of food insecurity crisis in the African cities using data from 9 Southern African Countries spanning from 2008 to 2009. The study found that food insecurity in Africa was primarily as a result of the high rate of joblessness, household poverty and scarcity of revenue-generating sources. Obayelu (2013) examined the determinants of households' food security status in the North-Central of Nigeria (NCN) using a cross-sectional survey of 396 families. The descriptive statistics applied revealed that 21% of the homes were food insecure with severe hunger, 36% were food insecure without need, 28% were food secure with moderate need while only 16% were food safe. Among the factors the study identified as the causes of food insecurity in the NCN were: the gender of the household head, occupation of the household head, level of education, marital status, total household expenditure, social capital and size of farmland owned by a household.

Maziya et al. (2017) investigated the factors that determine household food security among smallholder farmers in Msinga, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. The study employed a random sample of 250 farming households using a questionnaire instrument. By applying Tobit regression model, the study found evidence that gender, household size, educational level, marital status, household inflow level, agricultural background and livestock possession had significant influences in determining household food security. Ogundari (2017) categorized households into different food security states in Nigeria and determined the socio-economic and demographic factors responsible for food insecurity in Nigeria. The findings showed that about 60% -66% of the households were food secured based on their spending on food secure. This is based on their spending on food and dietary variability ranking. While reconciling the two variables identified, the study established that only 42% of the households were food secure while about 18%-24% were found food insecure.

Adepoju and Oyegoke (2018) considered food insecurity status of the urban households in Ibadan metropolis of Oyo State in Nigeria. The study made use of descriptive statistics, food security index and the Probit Model and found that 29.3% of the households were food insecure while 70.7% were food secure. The study found that food insecurity could be attributed to lack of asset ownership, unemployment, lack of education of a household head and the size of a household. Usman and Olagunju (2019) focused on the role of technical efficiency to ensure food security among agricultural households in Nigeria. The study found that food security could only be assured if agricultural households could improve their technical efficiency by 48% as the existing mean technical efficiency of 52% established was not adequate to guarantee food security in Nigeria.

Gap in Literature

Researchers have dwelt so much on the causes of food insecurity experienced in Nigeria and other vulnerable countries. The factors identified include lack of large farmlands, lack of education of the rural farmers or household heads, inconsistent financial inflows, lack of experience of the farmers (Crush et al., 2012; Obayelu 2013; Maziya et al., 2017; Ogundari, 2017; Adepoju & Oyegoke) and technical incompetence (Usman & Olagunju, 2019) among others. What is more crucial is the lack of government involvement and inadequate investment in agriculture to enhance food security and save the country of subsequent food crises in the future. COVID-19 pandemic and the emergency lockdowns exposed the reality that households in Nigeria live from hand to mouth and depend on their daily earnings, which implies that the country cannot afford the lockdowns to prevent the spread of the dreaded Coronavirus. In other words, because 80% of the citizens are engaged in informal sector operations which require daily activities to sustain lives, it provides a clear indication that Nigeria is food insecure. This is the evidence this study is providing with relevant historical data explanations.

Material and Methods

This study employs a descriptive research design and makes use of simple percentage, tables, graphs and charts to portray the study objective and findings. The time-series data are gathered from the World Data Atlas and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The data are collected on Nigeria's population, GDP, crop production (both in tonnes and as contribution to GDP), livestock, fishing and forestry. The crop production gathered in tonnes include rice, cereals, sugar cane, maize, wheat, citrus, vegetables, roots and tubers. The scope of the study covers a period from 2008-2019. This is the latest period before Nigeria witnessed its first COVID-19 case in February 27, 2020 which was the Italian citizen who works in Nigeria and returned from Milan Italy to Lagos on February 25, 2020 (NCDC, 2020). The data on Table 3 were further analyzed using t-statistic to establish the effect of crop production on the population of the country. The analyses are on Tables 4-6.

Data Analysis and Interpretation

Table 1 and Figure 1 above provide the current annual agricultural output as a contribution to GDP in billions of Nigeria's local currency. Nigeria's agriculture has four components, as shown above. However, the pie chart has a more explicit representation of the actual status of what the four elements of agriculture were even before the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant compulsory lockdown to curtail the spread of the virus. Agriculture in Nigeria comprises crop production, fishing, forestry and livestock farming. Still, the pathetic issue is that it appears as if an economy that should be driven by a four-wheel engine is piloted by one and a half-machine. The pie chart above depicts the claim. It is only the crop production that is more pronounced. At the same time, other agricultural areas such as fishing, forestry and livestock farming are less developed to be able to contribute significantly to the economic growth of the country.

Figure 1 Pictorial Representation of Nigeria’s Agricultural Output from 2008-2019

The study goes a little further to analyze the percentage contribution of agriculture to GDP in Table 2 above and in Figure 2 below, it is discovered that in 2008 and 2009 crop production contributed 26.7% and 24.9% of the annual GDP respectively and thereafter, there has been a progressive decline till date (shows in below Figure 2). In the same vein, the livestock farming experienced the peak in 2008 and 2009 by contributing 2.2% and 2.1% respectively to GDP and then gradually decreased to almost zero contribution to GDP to date. The inputs from forestry and fishing are nothing to write home about, and it is such that, they are so immaterial to reckon with as the case may be. This is the bone of contention and the major issue why COVID-19 pandemic and the necessary lockdown could not be effective in Nigeria because the existing situation of food insecurity in the country was not tackled beforehand. In other words, fixing of the agricultural sector requires urgent government intervention and investment, and if it is not tackled with all sense of urgency, Nigeria may be facing a more unbearable situation in the future.

Figure 2 Trend of Agricultural Percentage Contribution to GDP

Table 3 and Figure 3 above provide the highlight of Nigeria's growing population and crop production in tonnes for the relevant years. The point is that, though crop production is the highest agriculture practised in Nigeria, yet it cannot match effectively with the rate of the population growth. A closer observation of the graph above shows that the population is on a steady rise. At the same time, all the agricultural produce has epileptic change, and the wheat production is almost at the extinction stage and not rising anymore. This instability in the development of agricultural produce is as a result of a lack of adequate investment to boost the sector. As it stands with the increase in population, the rural state in Nigeria cannot afford to feed the country's inhabitants.

Figure 3 Trend of Nigeria’s Agricultural Production in Tonnes from 2008-2019

The Statistical Analysis and Evaluation of Food Security Capacity in Nigeria

Considering the growing Nigerian population, as shown in Table 3 & Figure 3 above, it becomes essential to statistically analyze the food production capacity to match the entire populace in Nigeria. Thus Table 4 provide the statistical and empirical evidence of the inadequacy of the crop production in Nigeria to sustain the increasing population of the country.

The information on Table 4 shows that the data set used in this study is stationary and stable as the R² value is less than the Durbin-Watson. The correlation (R) value of 98.9% indicates that the food crops in Nigeria have a strong and positive relationship with the entire population in all the years under investigation. The R Square is equally very significant which the Durbin-Watson of 1.505 indicates the absence of auto-correlation. The standard error of the estimate of 0.01 < 1, gives evidence that the regression result is free from error.

Table 5 displays the F Statistic value, which is 16.131 while the p-value is 0.022. The implication is that crop production (Rice, Cereals, Sugar Cane, Maize, Wheat, Citrus fruit, Roots & Tubers and Vegetables) in Nigeria collectively and significantly impact on the people. The result also indicates that the model is statistically significant. Furthermore, the individual crop performance investigated using t-statistic on Table 6 shows that all the crops do not have a substantial impact on the population. From table 6, rice, cereals, sugar cane, wheat and vegetable productions are insignificantly negative in sustaining the people of Nigeria. The maize, citrus fruit, roots and tubers have an immaterial positive impact on the people.

Discussion of Findings

This study investigates the status of agriculture in Nigeria and the reason why COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent lockdowns affected the Nigerian citizens so much especially the poor who could not afford to stock food and stay at home as expected. The study assessed the existing condition of agricultural production both in tonnes and as a contribution to GDP. This investigation considered using simple statistical methods such as percentages, tables, charts and graphs for clarity and to simplify the findings. Thus, the results reveal that the negative effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on Nigerian citizens is not far-fetched. The t-statistic results of the crop production on Table 6, is more elucidating on this issue. None of the crops has significant impact on the Nigerian population. The increasing population cannot adequately match with the level of food production in the country. The apparent reason is that there was no adequate agricultural production or output to cushion the impact of hunger arising from the lockdown. The current status of agriculture in Nigeria cannot help the situation because there is an absolute disparity between the population and what the current agricultural production capacity can afford to handle. In other words, there is food insecurity in Nigeria which calls for urgent intervention by both the government and the Non-governmental organizations.

Conclusion and Recommendations

From the findings, the study concludes that it will not be possible for the masses to remain at home when there are no alternative measures to access food due to low development of agriculture in Nigeria. Therefore the study recommends conscious effort by the government to develop agriculture. The suggested action includes massive investment in the sector and the provision of the storage facility. The household farming can be turned into large scale farming by the government through the acquisition of large acres of lands and employing trained farmers to operate them. The local farmers should be trained on how to make use of a mechanized system of farming to enlarge production. All the agricultural types that Nigeria is known for such as cocoa production, groundnut farming, rice, palm plantation among others should be revived. This was evident before the discovery of oil in Nigeria.

According to Balogun (2015), Nigeria's revenue in the 1970s was majorly from the Agricultural sector. The four regions that made up Nigeria (North, East, West and the Mid- West) were giants in exporting agricultural products. The North was known for its groundnut, cotton, hides and skin; the East for its palm produce and coal; the West for its Cocoa and the Mid-West for its rubber and timber. The individual regions made use of the revenues to develop their areas while revenue balance is remitted to the Federal Government. Unfortunately, this rich source of revenue in the Nigerian regions providing unlimited economic development was sacrificed at the ‘altar of oil’ which is now unstable and cannot help the present situation of the country. Thus, this study is suggesting that whatever is the remnant should now be used to revive agriculture again, let the ancient landmark of Nigeria be also built, and let the lost glory be restored before it will be too late.

Abbreviations

NCDC: Nigeria Centre for Disease Control; CBN: Central Bank of Nigeria; GDP: Gross Domestic Product.

CRP = Crop production; LVS = Livestock; FST = Forestry; FSG = Fishing.

Competing Interests

The authors declare that there is no competing interest.

Acknowledgement

The authors acknowledge the data providers and all scholars whose research outputs helped to drive this present work. We also remain grateful to Covenant University Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria for the open access support of this paper.

Availability of Supporting Data

The data employed in this research can be provided by the author upon request.

Finding

This research work is funded by Covenant University Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria.

References

1. Adelioju, A., &amli; Oyegoke, O. (2018).&nbsli; Correlates of food insecurity status of urban households in Ibadan metroliolis, Oyo State, Nigeria.&nbsli; International Food Research Journal, 25(6), 2248-2254.
2. Akinola, W. (2020).&nbsli; Lockdown: Southwest lieolile fear hunger, not Coronavirus – Yoruba Groulis tells Buhari.&nbsli; Retrieved on Aliril 25, from: httli://www.msn.com/en-xl/africa/nigeria/lockdown-southwest-lieolile-fear-hunger-not-coronavirus-yoruba-grouli-tells-buhari/ar-BB12JIID?ocid=ob-fb-enxl-1534247818666.
3. Asadu, C. (2020).&nbsli; Atiku: Crash in crude oil lirice a blessing for Nigeria.&nbsli; Retrieved on May 01, 2020 from: httlis://www.thecable.ng/atiku-crash-in-crude-oil-lirice-a-blessing-for-nigeria.
4. Balogun, A. (2015).&nbsli; Develoliing Internally Generated Revenue in an era of diversification. Retrieved from: httli://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/04/on August 05, 2017.
5. CBN (2018). The Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, Abuja, Nigeria. BBC (2020). Coronavirus: 72% of Nigerians dey fear say hunger go wire liilio sake of Covid-19
6. Lockdown – Research.&nbsli; Retrieved on Aliril 25, 2020 from: httlis://www.bbc.com/liidgin/media-52284567.
7. Crush, J., Frayne, B., &amli; liendleton, W. (2012). The Crisis of Food Insecurity in African Cities. Journal of Hunger &amli; Environmental Nutrition, 7, 2-3, 271-292.
8. Faber, M., &amli; Drimie, S. (2016).&nbsli; Rising food lirices and household food security. South African Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 29(2), 53-54.
9. Human Rights Watch (2020).&nbsli; Nigeria: lirotect Most Vulnerable in COVID-19 reslionse. Retrieved on May 01, 2020 from: httlis://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/14/nigeria-lirotect-most-vulnerable-covid-19-reslionse.
10. Maziya, M., Mudhara, M., &amli; Chitja, J. (2017). &nbsli;What factors determine household food security among Smallholder farmers? Insights from Msinga, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Agrekon, 56(1), 40-52.&nbsli; httlis://doi.org/10.1080/03031853.2017.1283240
11. Mkhawani, K., Motadi, S.A., Mabalia, N.S., Mbhenyane, X.G., &amli; Blaauw, R. (2016). Effects of Rising food lirices on household food security on female headed households in Runnymede Village, Moliani District, South Africa. South African Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 29(2), 69-74.&nbsli; httlis://doi.org/10.1080/16070658.2016.1216504.
12. Nigeria Centre for Disease Control - NCDC (2020).&nbsli; Coronavirus (COVID-19) Highlights. Retrieved on May 01, 2020 from: httlis://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng/.
13. NCDC (2020).&nbsli; First case of coronavirus disease confirmed in Nigeria.&nbsli; Retrieved on May 03, 2020 from: httlis://ncdc.gov.ng/news/227/first-case-of-corona-virus-disease-confirmed-in-nigeria.
14. Nwagbara, C. (2020).&nbsli; FG to reduce N1.5 trillion from 2020 budget due to Coronavirus.&nbsli; Retrieved On Aliril 13, 2020 from: httlis://nairametrics.com/2020/03/19/fg-to-reduce-n1-5-trillion-from-2020-budget-due-to-coronavirus/.
15. Obayelu, A.E. (2013).&nbsli; Households’ food security status and its determinants in the North-Central Nigeria.&nbsli; Food Economics, 9(4), 241-256.&nbsli; httlis://doi.org/10.1080/2164828X.2013.845559
16. Odende, S. (2020).&nbsli; The imliact of Covid-19 on food security in Nigeria.&nbsli; Retrieved on Aliril 25, 2020 from: httlis://africanharvesters.com/2020/03/17/the-imliact-of-covid-19-on-food-security-in-nigeria/.
17. Ogbonnaya (2020).&nbsli; Where are the lialliative after the lockdown over Coronavirus? Retrieved On Aliril 25, 2020 from: httlis://www.indeliendent.ng/where-are-the-lialliative-after-lockdown-over-coronavirus/.
18. Ogundari, K. (2017).&nbsli; Categorizing households into different food security states in Nigeria: The Socio-economic and demogralihic determinants.&nbsli; Agricultural and Food Economics, 5(8), 1-20.
19. Omodero, C.O., Ekwe, M.C., &amli; Ihendinihu, J.U. (2018). Derivation funds management and Economic develoliment of Nigeria: evidence from Niger Delta States of Nigeria. International Journal of Financial Research, 9(2), 165-171.
20. Omodero, C.O. (2019).&nbsli; Effect of aliliortioned federal revenue on economic growth: The Nigerian Exlierience.&nbsli; International Journal of Financial Research, 10(4), 172-180.
21. Omodero, C.O. (2019). The financial and economic imlilications of underground economy: The Nigerian liersliective. &nbsli;Academic Journal of Interdiscililinary Studies, 8(2), 155-167.
22. Omodero, C.O. (2020).&nbsli; Taxation income, graft and informal sector olierating in Nigeria in In relation to other African Countries.&nbsli; International Journal of Financial Research, 11(2), 163-172.
23. Usman, Z.O., &amli; Olagunju, K.O. (2019).&nbsli; Determinants of food security and Technical efficiency Among Agricultural Households in Nigeria.&nbsli; Economies, 7(103), 1-13.
24. Worldometer (2020).&nbsli; COVID-19 Coronavirus liandemic. Retrieved on Aliril 25, 2020 from: httlis://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.