Journal of Legal, Ethical and Regulatory Issues (Print ISSN: 1544-0036; Online ISSN: 1544-0044)


Towards Poverty Alleviation Under Covid-19 And Oil Price Decline: Three Scenarios For Achieving SDG 1 In Iraq

Author(s): Ahmed AL-YASIRI, Hasan KADHIM, Ziyad AL-RUBAIE, Zina AKRAM, Akeel ALMAGTOME

 This article highlights the effects of the compound shock caused by low oil prices and the cessation of economic activity due to steps to combat the outbreak of the Corona pandemic on poverty in Iraq via three scenarios. We use the foresight methodology based on secondary data gathered from local and international officials and reports during 2018-2020. The findings indicate that the Iraqi economy faces a combined shock from (low oil prices, the Corona outbreak) and the internal political crisis. Under the first scenario, the economic growth will be gradually improved. However, the GDP will be decreased by 36%. The second scenario is expected to return economic activity, and the oil market prices are expected to increase by 26%. The pessimistic case scenario would lead to a deterioration of output by about 43% with the collapse of oil markets and a sharp drop in Iraq's exports under the OPEC agreement (+). The findings also indicate that the poverty rate will reach 22.8% (9.120 million people) and consumption will decrease by 20%, and the poverty rate will increase to 25.6% (10.240 million people). This study provides more understanding for policymakers on the potential effect of the compound crisis.

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