Journal of Legal, Ethical and Regulatory Issues (Print ISSN: 1544-0036; Online ISSN: 1544-0044)

Research Article: 2019 Vol: 22 Issue: 4

Cross-Regional Analysis of Demographic, Criminogenic, Economic, Socio-Cultural Factors Impact on Delinquency Indicators Dynamics

Ekaterina V Ilgova, Saratov State Law Academy

Irina O Kuznetcova, Saratov State Law Academy

Mikhail V Gorbachev, Saratov State Law Academy

Arseny Starodumov, Saratov State Law Academy

Abstract

The article deals with analysis of the impact of criminogenic, economic, social, sociodemographic, socio-cultural factors of Russian Federation constituents’ development on delinquency level dynamics. The peculiarities of criminogenic space of Russia were considered on the basis of data presented on Crime Statistics portal of the Office of Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation. Russian Federation constituents were combined in several classes in accordance with the criminal activities level, including the delinquency level, depending on the number of crimes committed in a constituent territory: low, medium, medium-high, high. Within the research there were also analyzed statistical indicators of Russian Federation constituents’ socio-economic development: general socio-economic indicators of the regions (on the basis of Russian Federal State Statistics Service (RFSSS) ratings); indicators of quality of living in the RF constituents (on the basis of RFSSS indices); unemployment level (on the basis of RFSSS information); indicators of household welfare level (on the basis of RFSSS ratings).

Keywords

Demographic, Economic, Socio-Cultural Determinants, Deviant Behavior, Comparative Analysis.

Introduction

Delinquency is one of the most challenging problems of the modern world (Ashgar, 2017). Delinquency stems from its specific reasons. These reasons are negative socio-psychological factors including elements of economic, political, legal, everyday psychology at different level of public conscience which cause criminality as a consequence (Ashgar, 2018). The most alarming socio-economic tendency is social stratification-society splitting with the features of growing property and social inequality, drop in the living standards of population.

This research is aimed at conducting a comparative analysis on the basis of collected empirical data of socio-economic and demographic factors impacts as well as socio-cultural factors of regions development at the increase/decrease of delinquency indicators.

Material and Methods

As data for analysis there were used RF constituents’ ratings assessments, offered by different agencies and media and available in the open access. There were considered and analyzed statistic indicators of 85 RF constituents’ socioeconomic development on the basis of: Rating of Russian regions socio-economic situation (at year-end 2016); Russian regions rating in accordance with quality of living; Analytical Bulletin of Russian regions socio-economic situation (as at January-March 2017); Constituents’ rating in terms of Russian household welfare (at year-end 2016). RF constituents’ socio-economic characteristics were completed by socio-demographic and socio-cultural factors of development (data on alcohol and narcotic drugs consumption by the population, etc.

The following methods were used in the research: compilation and grouping of statistical monitoring data; absolute and relative statistical value; variational series; sampling method; correlation and regressive analysis; time series. Moreover, the research, assessment and analysis of information were carried out through statistical monitoring (Howell, 2013).

Results and Discussion

In the Central Federal District 83% of population live in large cities and towns. Juvenile population is spread non-uniformly in the District subjects. At the same time the number of crimes committed by juveniles is in direct ratio to the number of juveniles in this subject. Thus, in terms of “committing serious and very serious crimes by juveniles” Moscow, Moscow region, Kursk region lead. Medium indicators are in Bryansk, Vladimir, Voronezh, and Tver regions (Legal Statistics Portal, 2016).

The lowest indicators are demonstrated by Smolensk, Belgorod, and Orel regions. At the same time it is necessary to underline that the high indicators of the rating leaders are determined by the total number of juveniles living in their territory but not by a low level of their economic development (Canter, 2008). Delinquency indicators of the second and thirds groups of subjects are more dependable on their socio-economic parameters. This allows ascertaining that Central Federal District and particular RF subjects’ basic socio-economic development indicators influence delinquency level only indirectly. In particular, indicators in question are household welfare level and average unemployment level in a subject, which affect the number of crimes committed by persons not having permanent sources of income (Analytical Bulletin, 2017).

It is necessary to draw attention to socio-cultural characteristics of considered territories. In terms of population alcoholization most of the district subjects are in the group of relatively trouble-free subjects which are characterized by medium and low levels of alcohol sales. Based on the above it is possible to state that medium and minimum existence in the district of such background phenomena as alcoholism and narcotic drugs addiction in general impact the criminal activities, including delinquency.

In the North-Western Federal District as a whole a low level of delinquency was observed. Arkhangelsk region, St. Petersburg, Karelia and Komi republics overstep the low criminal activity level to the medium one. Herewith a certain number of crimes committed by juveniles are categorized as serious and very serious (Vologda region, St. Petersburg). Recidivism of juveniles is rather widely spread (Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions, Karelia and Komi republics). At the same time there is an analogous tendency of total criminal activities in the indicated territories (Legal Statistics Portal, 2016).

The conducted analysis revealed indirect impact of North-Western Federal District basic socio-economic development indicators on criminal activity level, including delinquency. Low quality of living indicators correspond with the proportion of crimes committed by persons not having a permanent source of income.

It is necessary to draw attention to socio-cultural characteristics of considered territories. In terms of population alcoholization most of the district subjects are in the group of relatively trouble-free subjects which are characterized by medium and low levels of alcohol sales. Based on the above it is possible to state that medium and minimum existence in the district of such background phenomena as alcoholism and narcotic drugs addiction in general impact the criminal activities, including delinquency.

In the Volga Federal District most population lives in big cities, however, urbanization level is 3% lower than All-Russia indicators. Thus, in terms of “committing serious and very serious crimes by juveniles” the leaders are Nizhegorodskaya region, Bashkortostan Republic, Tatarstan Republic, Perm area. Orenburg region, Mordova Republic, Samara region, Ulyanovsk region, Penza region, Udmurtskaya Republic, Saratov region, and Chuvashskaya Republic have medium indicators. The lowest indicators are shown by Mari El Republic and Kirov region (Legal Statistics Portal, 2016).

It is necessary to underline that the high indicators of the rating leaders are determined by the total number of juveniles living in their territory but not by a low level of their economic development. Delinquency indicators of the medium and low groups of subjects are more dependable on their socio-economic parameters. This indicates that the Volga Federal District and particular RF subjects’ basic socio-economic development indicators influence criminal activity level, including delinquency, only indirectly. In particular, this refers to household welfare level and average unemployment level in a subject, which affect the number of crimes committed by persons not having permanent sources of income. In terms of population alcoholization most of the district subjects are in the group of relatively trouble-free subjects which are characterized by medium and low levels of alcohol sales (Analytical Bulletin, 2017).

In the Sothern Federal District the biggest number of juveniles is placed on record in Rostov region and Krasnodar area, the lowest number-in Sevastopol. This pattern influences the total picture of criminal activity expressed in figures.

There is an unstable socio-economic situation in the subjects constituting the Sothern Federal District. The exceptions are Rostov region and Krasnodar area, partly Volgograd region, which occupy high and medium positions in the ratings of socio-economic indicators under analysis. The Sothern Federal District territory can be categorized as one with medium-low level of total criminality. The supposition about correspondence of total criminality level to delinquency level is confirmed partly. The exceptions are Rostov region and Krasnodar area being in the 6th and 4th places among RF constituents in terms of total number of crimes. The indicated regions also lead in terms of “the number of serious and very serious crimes in total” (Analytical Bulletin, 2017).

In accordance with National rating of sobriety data (Russian Economic, 2017) the Sothern Federal District territory as a whole can be placed in the group of regions with low alcoholization level. Herewith in terms of the number of crimes committed by persons being drunk some of the district subjects are included in the group of regions with medium criminal activity (Volgograd region, Krasnodar area, Rostov region). The process of juveniles’ criminalization is connected with the factor of a vast number of homeless and unsupervised juveniles. According to commissions on juvenile affairs and protection of their rights (CJA&PR) data in the first half of 2017 the number of homeless juveniles decreased on 29% in comparison with 2016 (Russian Economic, 2017).

A distinctive characteristic of the Sothern Federal District is a high concentration of correctional institutions within its territory and, consequently, the number of persons having been convicted earlier who can influence juveniles to some extent. Rostov region is among first ten RF regions with the highest number of Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia (FPSR) institutions and bed spaces in FPSR institutions. Thus concentration of correctional institutions within certain subjects of the District and spreading of criminal subculture negative tendencies become a proximate cause of juveniles’ criminalization which leads to the high level of delinquency 2016 data received from regional offices of investigation on detecting crimes against life, health, and sexual inviolability of orphaned children and legally free children allows making certain correlations with the number of juveniles considered to be in a socially dangerous position or referred to this category.

In the North-Caucus Federal District the highest number of juvenile inhabitants is within the Dagestan Republic territory (33% of total number of juveniles registered in the District), Stavropol area (23%), and Chechen Republic (19.8%). There is observed a low delinquency level in the North-Caucus Federal District as a whole. Only Stavropol area shows indicators going over to medium level. Delinquency level indicators entirely correspond with total criminal activity indicators. The analysis showed a direct correspondence of subjects’ basic socioeconomic development indicators and criminal activity level.

It is necessary to draw attention to socio-cultural characteristics of considered territories. In terms of population alcoholization a considerable number of the district subjects is in the group of “the most sober” subjects which are characterized by low levels of alcohol sales which consequently leads to minimum number of crimes committed by persons in the state of being drunk.

The specified tendencies expand on delinquency level indicators. According to regional CJA&PR data in the group of juveniles, toward whom individual preventive work being carried out, the number of persons consuming narcotic or psychotropic substances without doctor’s prescription or consuming intoxicating substances, alcohol and alcohol-containing products is minimum. Despite the low delinquency level indicators in 2016 in some subjects there is an increase of crimes against children. Thus, Kabardino-Balkaria Republic, Ingushetia Republic, Northern Ossetia-Alania Republic are among ten leading RF regions in terms of number of crimes against minors. There were a considerable number of serious crimes committed against minors in Stavropol area (Russian Economic, 2018).

In the Ural Federal District (UFD) the highest number of juveniles is fixed within Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions. These indicators definitely influence the total picture of criminal activity expressed in absolute numbers. There is a stable socio-economic situation in the subjects affiliated with the Ural Federal District. An exception is the Kurgan region which is at the bottom of ratings in terms of analyzed socio-economic indicators.

Stability of UFD subjects’ socio-economic development positively influences the decrease of population criminal activity level as a whole. Thus, the UFD territory can be categorized as one with medium-low level of total criminality. The supposition about total criminality level correspondence with delinquency level is confirmed partly. Regions with a low level of total criminality demonstrate similar indicators of delinquency. Exceptions are Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions which are in the 1st and 2nd places among RF subjects in terms of crimes committed by juveniles. The specified regions also lead in terms of “the number of serious and very serious crimes (Russian Economic, 2017).

In accordance with National rating of sobriety data the UFD territory as a whole can be referred to the group of regions with high and above the medium level of alcoholisation which does not allow considering as successful the anti-alcoholic campaign carried out here but, on the contrary, predisposing the increase of the number of crimes committed by persons in the state of being drunk. Thus, for example, in accordance with Crime Statistics portal data the level of criminal activity in the Chelyabinsk region as a whole is characterized as medium-low. At the same time in terms of the crimes committed by persons in the state of being drunk the region is in the group of regions with high level of criminal activities. A similar correlation is observed in the Sverdlovsk region (Russian Economic, 2017).

In a accordance with CJA&PR data for the first half of 2017 in the Khanty-Mansy okrug and the Kurgan region each fourth juvenile from those, toward whom individual preventive work was carried out, is marked as one who consumes narcotic drugs or psychotropic substances without doctor’s prescription or consumes intoxicating substances, alcohol and alcoholcontaining products. In the process of juvenile criminalization the factor of a big number of homeless and unsupervised juveniles has a certain importance. In accordance with regional CJA&PR data in the first half of 2017 the number of homeless and unsupervised juveniles increased by 19% comparing with 2016. There are certain number of homeless and unsupervised juveniles as well as persons contained in socio-rehabilitative centers for juveniles, social shelters, and centers for assistance to children left without parental care, special educative and other institutions for juveniles needing social assistance and/or rehabilitation in Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions.

A distinctive characteristic of the Ural Federal District is a high concentration of correctional institutions within its territory and, consequently, the number of persons having been convicted earlier who can influence juveniles to some extent. Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions are among the first ten RF regions with the highest number of FPSR institutions and bed spaces in the FPSR institutions. Thus concentration of correctional institutions within certain subjects of the District and spreading of criminal subculture negative tendencies become a proximate cause of juveniles’ criminalization which leads to the high level of delinquency.

In the Siberia Federal District (SFD) the biggest number of juveniles lives in Kemerovo, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk regions and Krasnoyarsk area. These indicators definitely influence the total picture of criminal activity expressed in absolute numbers. In the Siberia Federal District as a whole there is an excessive delinquency. Irkutsk and Kemerovo regions, Krasnoyarsk area overstep the boundary of medium-high level of delinquency. Altay and Zabaikal areas are in the about-boundary situation, and Novosibirsk region converges them in terms of the number of crimes committed by juveniles. Herewith a considerable number of crimes committed by juveniles is categorized as serious and very serious crimes. Recidivism is spread rather widely (Russian Economic, 2017). In terms of “serious and very serious crimes committed by juveniles” the leaders are Irkutsk and Kemerovo regions and Altay and Zabaikal areas mentioned above. The biggest number of repeated commission by juveniles is in Altay, Zabaikal, Krasnoyarsk areas, Tomsk region (Russian Economic, 2017).

The conducted analysis revealed indirect impact of Siberia Federal District basic socioeconomic development indicators on criminal activity level, including delinquency (Russian Economic, 2017). In the District as a whole averaged socio-economic indicators mirror averaged indicators of criminal activity. It is necessary to draw attention to socio-cultural characteristics (Andrews & Bonta, 2010) of considered territories. In terms of population alcoholization certain number of the district subjects is either in the group of troubled subjects which are characterized by maximum levels of alcohol sales, high level of deaths, diseases and crimes connected with consumption of alcohol drinks or in borderline state (Altay, Buryatia, and Khakasia Republics, Altay and Zabaikal areas).

An essential indicator influencing criminality level is existence in some SFD subjects of favorable climate conditions for growing of narcotics-containing plants, presence of market outlets for narcotics, convenient transit for drug couriers. Thus, Krasnoyarsk area is in the first three leaders in terms of the number of juveniles convicted in crimes connected with narcotics. In terms of confiscated cannabis and its by-products the leaders are Buryatia and Tyva Republics, Krasnoyarsk and Altay areas, Irkutsk region. Based on the specified factors it is possible to say that existence and retention in the district territory such background phenomena as alcoholism and drug addiction provoke the increase of criminal activity including delinquency.

In the process of juvenile criminalization the factor of existence of a big number of homeless and unsupervised juveniles has a certain importance. In a accordance with regional CJA&PR data in the first half of 2017 comparing with 2016 the number of homeless juveniles in the district was 19% of the total number of homeless and unsupervised juveniles in the RF. Herewith beginning from the first half of 2015 this indicator increased by 30%.

A distinctive characteristic of the Siberia Federal District is a high concentration of correctional institutions within its territory and, consequently, the number of persons having been convicted earlier who can influence juveniles to some extent. Krasnoyarsk area, Kemerovo and Irkutsk regions are among first ten RF regions with the highest number of FPSR institutions and bed spaces in FPSR institutions. Thus concentration of correctional institutions within certain subjects of the District and spreading of criminal subculture negative tendencies become a proximate cause of juveniles’ environment criminalization which leads to the high level of delinquency.

In terms of territory the Far-Eastern Federal District is the biggest one in Russia. Its unique features are: firstly, it includes the only autonomous region in Russia; secondly, there are no cities with population over 1 million people. The District residential density is one of the lowest in Russia. The biggest number of juveniles inhabits Amur region, Primorskii area, Sakha Republic (Yakutia), Sakhalin region, Khabarovsk area (about 100 thousand and more). The number of crimes committed by juveniles in the subject’s territories is in direct ratio with the juvenile’s number in a subject territory in most studied cases. Thus, the highest number of crimes committed by juveniles was fixed in Amur region, Primorskii area, Khabarovsk aream Sakha Republic (Yakutia) (Russian Economic, 2017).

In the indicated context it is necessary to note that leaders’ high indicators are determined by the total number of juveniles in their territories but not by their level of socio-economic development (MIA Russia Today, 2017). Indicators of delinquency level of the first and second groups of subjects are less dependable on their socio-economic parameters. In this case there were revealed only indirect influence of the Far-Eastern Federal District basic socio-economic development indicators on the criminality level including delinquency. In terms of population alcoholization most of the district subjects are in the group of relatively trouble-free subjects which are characterized by medium and low levels of alcohol sales.

Conclusion

The analyzed empirical material allows making the following summaries. In the Central, Volga, Ural, and Far-Eastern Districts there were revealed indirect influence of basic socio-economic development indicators on the delinquency level. In particular, indicators in question are household welfare level and average unemployment level in a subject, which affect the number of crimes committed by persons not having permanent sources of income. Analyzed statistical data allow ascertaining that medium and minimum existence in the districts of such background phenomena as alcoholism and narcotic drugs addiction have a determining influence on delinquency increase.

In the North-Western Federal District median indicators of quality of living are correlated with the relative weight of the number of crimes committed by persons not having permanent sources of income. Thus the impact of basic socio-economic indicators of district’s and its separate subjects’ development on the delinquency level is of direct character.

In the subjects of the South Federal District unstable socio-economic situation projects the increase of delinquency. At the same time the hypothesis about correspondence of general criminal activities level to delinquency indicators is partly confirmed. In North-Caucuses and Siberia Federal Districts in most of the subjects, their constituents, there were revealed the direct ration between basic socio-economic development indicators and criminal activity level. Low indicators of quality of living, excessive unemployment level correlate with the proportion of crimes committed by persons not having a permanent source of income.

Thus, the reasons for increase/decrease of delinquency level are connected with the dynamics of socio-economic development of the regions they live in (Ilgova et al., 2017). In particular, in some territories there observed lack of normal socioeconomic conditions for living, including juveniles (vagrancy, homelessness, raising in families being in a socially dangerous position and other), incomplete satisfaction of basic socio-economic needs provokes development of many negative deviations (Gorbachev et al., 2017). It is necessary to note the dynamics of crimes committed by juveniles is influenced by demographic indicators of total number of juveniles living in the Federal Districts territories. Thus, criminality indictors of Central, Volga and Siberian Federal Districts, where the biggest number of juveniles are concentrated, are higher than in the subjects included in other Federal Districts with less number of juveniles.

The Number of Juvenile Inhabitants in the Federal District Territory:

1. Far-Eastern FD.

2. Siberia FD.

3. North-Caucasian FD.

4. Ural FD.

5. Sothern FD.

6. Volga FD.

7. North-Western FD.

8. Central FD.

Thus subjects’ low socio-economic indicators may cause both high and low indicators of delinquency level. At the same time subjects’ high socio-economic development indicators are not guarantees for delinquency decrease within this subject (Russian Economic, 2017).

Rating of regions in terms of Gross Regional Product level:

1. Central FD.

2. North-Western FD.

3. Volga FD.

4. Sothern FD.

5. Ural FD.

6. North-Caucasian FD.

7. Siberia FD.

8. Far-Eastern FD.

The supposition about determination of increase/decrease of a delinquency level in Federal Districts and subjects, their constituents, by their basic socio-economic development indicators is confirmed partly. In particular it refers to such factors as the number of families being in a socially dangerous position and population alcoholization in a greater degree, and quality of living level and unemployment level to a lesser degree.

Crimes committed by juvenile’s high numbers Sverdlovsk region:

1. Chelyabinsk region.

2. Irkutsk region.

3. Perm area.

4. Krasnoyarsk area.

5. Zabaikal area.

6. Altay area.

7. Krasnodar area Novosibirsk region medium numbers Volgograd region.

8. Nizhegorodskaya region.

9. Samara region.

10. Tyumen region.

11. Voronezh region Amur region minimum numbers Sevastopol Magadan region Republic Nor.

12. Karachaevo-Cherkesskaya Republic.

13. Kalmykia Republic.

14. Nenetckii Autonomous Orkug.

Besides socio-economic development factors delinquency level is influenced by sociocultural and geographic specific features of Federal districts and subjects, their constituents. In particular, confessional (faith-based) and ethnical population composition, subjects’ territory, ratio of rural and urban population, number of cities with more than million population, presence/absence of specific youth and non-youth subcultures and counter-cultures. Moreover, there are additional factors of medical character. By sampling data no more than 15% of juveniles can be considered apparently healthy. This factor considerably restricts their abilities in continuing education, choosing a career, everyday life and employment, access to socially useful values and groups, which finally leads many juveniles to unlawful conduct.

Likewise, correlative analysis of regions’ characteristics ratings for 2015, 2016, 1st half of 2017 showed inconspicuous changes in RF subjects’ allocation in terms of indicators used in the research. Considering this it seems possible to extrapolate some statistic materials for the previous years on present time.

References

Analytical Bulletin. (2017). Socio-economic situation in RF subjects. Retrieved fromhttp://vid1.rian.ru/ig/ratings/regpol_07_2017.pdf

Andrews, D.A., & Bonta, J. (2010). The psychology of criminal conduct. New Providence, Routledge.

Ashgar, A.B.A.M. (2017). Protecting children from labor: Muslim scholar’s viewpoint and legal provisions in selected Muslim countries. Advanced Science Letters, 23(4), 6106-6109.

Ashgar, A.B.A.M. (2018) Criminalizing child marriage with special focus on Malaysia. Journal of Islamic Law Review, 14(1), 155-180.

Canter, D. (2008). Criminal psychology. London: Hodder Education.

Gorbachev, M.V., Ermolaeva, T.A., Ilgova, E.V., Kuznetsova, I.O., & Mrasteva, O.S. (2017). Socio-economic factors influencing the criminal behavior of minors. Saratov.

Howell, K.E. (2013). Introduction to the philosophy of methodology. London: Sage Publications.

Ilgova, E.V., Gorbachev, M.V., Kuznetsova, I.O., Fedorov, V.K., Krasnoshchekov, A.A., & Latypova, Y.A. (2017). Indicators of commissions on juvenile affairs and protection of their rights activities for 2015-2016: Analytical report. Saratov.

Legal Statistics Portal. (2016). Crime statistics portal of the office of prosecutor general of the Russian Federation. Retrieved from http://crimestat.ru/

MIA Russia Today. (2017). Constituents’ rating in terms of Russian household welfare. Retrieved from http://www.riarating.ru/regions/20170515/630062559.html

Russian Economic. (2017). Rating of socio-economic situation in RF subjects at the year-end 2016. Retrieved from http://www.riarating.ru/infografika/20170530/630063754.html

Russian Economic. (2018). Rating of Russian subjects in terms of quality of living. Retrieved from https://ria.ru/infografika/20180214/1514552265.html