Journal of Legal, Ethical and Regulatory Issues (Print ISSN: 1544-0036; Online ISSN: 1544-0044)

Research Article: 2021 Vol: 24 Issue: 6S

Impact of Conflict on the Macroeconomic Variables of J&K State: A Case of Tourism Sector

Samira Khan, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University

M. Ibrahim Wani, CCAS, University

M. Afzal Mir CCAS, University of Kashmir


Jammu & Kashmir State is a unique tourist destination in the sense that it offers attractions for varied type of tourists as Jammu is known for Pilgrim tourism, Kashmir for scenic & Ladakh for adventurous tourism. This kind of distinctiveness is seen only in the state of Jammu & Kashmir in the whole country. The state has a huge tourist potential while the growth & development of other sectors was restricted due to certain natural limitations. With the growth of population, there has been increase in the work force that needs to be engaged. Given the capacity of other sectors in the state, tourism has been the main sector which offers great scope to the growing able body work force. However, the on-going situation in the state has not only squeezed the space for adjustment but also left already absorbed large chunk jobless and adversely hit/affected the macroeconomic variables of the state economy. In this backdrop the present study has been undertaken to evaluate the impact of conflict on the macroeconomics variables and how it affected the physical1, social, human2 & institutional capital of the state. Being an agrarian economy, Jammu and Kashmir has a promising tourism sector which became the major target of the decade long unstable conditions. It is pertinent here to analyze the overall impact of conflict on the tourism sector of state economy. It was proved that tourism sector has both long-run as well as short-run causality running from real gross domestic product to other economic variables of the state economy during the conflict situation. So any underperformance in this sector would be detrimental for the growth of state economy. In order to revive the sector there is urgent need to invite all the stakeholders and evolve a strategy providing required incentives and concessions, to ‘put the state back on the confidence map’ so that the tourism sector would cope with the difficult situation and regain the sheen of its normal functioning and thereby would engage the masses in great numbers and benefit the state economy as well.


Tourism, Conflict, Co-relational Analysis, Economic Sectors, Impact, Able body, Macroeconomic Variables, Co-integration, Granger Causality, Unit Root


Tourism1-4 used to be restricted to a certain class of people, however, now it has become a lifestyle and a consumption habit for many people in both the developed and the developing world. It is a growth rather an export growth engine and employment generator having the capacity to create large scale employment both direct and indirect, for diverse sections of society from the most specialized to unspecialized work force and gives a tremendous impulse to the economy. The state of Jammu & Kashmir in the context of development has some characteristic economic disadvantages 5 and for the past few decades has been suffering due to particularly hostile circumstances which have not only disadvantaged the scope and nature of its developmental scenario but given rise to serious problems like unemployment. Being a mountainous region, the state’s peculiar geography did not allow its industrial sector to gain momentum. Agriculture, being the spine of the state economy, has its own limitations 6 like single crop season and small size of holding to grow. Despite the fact, the landmass of Jammu & Kashmir7 has a great potential for development of various sectors especially tourism in view of its native potential which places the State on the map of national as well as international tourist destinations. It is an acknowledged fact that with the increase in the influx of tourists, more economic activity is generated which has a multiplier effect on the revenue of the populace reliant on this sector. But because of the outbreak of conflict8 Jammu & Kashmir has had to experience the cauldron of macroeconomic uncertainty9 rather volatility10 since 1989 which amplified the cautionary savings and demands11 that eventually reduced the investments on productive capital (i.e., fixed capital12+working capital13, & invested capital (i.e., fixed capital+physical working capital14) which froze the macroeconomic variables in general and hit the human capital in particular of the province as a whole. Nonetheless, a host of researchers across the country have theoretically scrutinized the issue of the impact of conflict on tourism sector, but as such no one has examined empirically the dynamic and causal relationship between conflict and macroeconomic variables of the state. Thus, an absence of such kind of research on the impact of conflict on the macroeconomic variables of the J&K state is the central objective of this study. The present study, therefore, attempts to bridge this research gap with broader objectives to study: a) the impact of conflict on the macroeconomic variables of Jammu & Kashmir State; b) the impact of conflict on the physical, social and institutional capital of Jammu & Kashmir state; and c) the corelational impact of conflict on the overall economy of Jammu & Kashmir state.


The study is based on the time series data of 26 years from 1990-2016 and the data of various macroeconomic variables has been collected from different government agencies & organizations, namely Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India; Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India; Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Ministry of Power, Government of India; Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government of India; Issues of State Finances: A Study of Budgets, Reserve Bank of India; Basic Statistical Returns of Scheduled Commercial Banks in India, RBI, Various Issues; National Crime Records Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India; Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India; World Travel & Tourism Council, Ministry of Tourism Government of India; Department of Planning & Monitoring Government of J&K; JKTDC Government of J&K and Directorate of Handicrafts Government of J&K etc.

Model Specification

In order to examine the impact of conflict on macroeconomic variables of the state economy, the following regression model has been adopted.

??=?+????+????+????+????+????+????+????+????+????+??????+??????+− − − − − − − − − − +??????+?.

??. ?????=??+?????????+???????+?,Where RGSDP is the real gross state domestic product; FTOAR is the foreign tourist arrivals and FER is the foreign exchange earnings. However, the above regression model is subject to check the stationarity of time series data with the help of Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillip Perrons unit root tests.

Δ?=?+?? + ?+? (???????? 1)>????????? ????

Δ?=?+? + ?? + ?+? (???????? 2)>????? & ?????????

Δ?=?? + ?+? (???????? 3)>?? ????? & ?? ?????????

Being an agrarian economy, Jammu and Kashmir state has a promising tourism sector which became the major target of the decades long unstable conditions. The present study is an attempt to investigate the issue and try to help the sector to return back on the track in the prevailing conditions so that the large section of the society are engaged and would also fetch large revenue to the government.


The paper has evaluated major macroeconomic variables of Jammu & Kashmir economy as a whole but conflict conditions squarely impacted the Kashmir province only. Since the data was not available on province level, it was rather cumbersome job to study the valley of Kashmir separately. Therefore, the whole State was taken into account to draw the inferences.

Impact of Conflict on the Macroeconomic Variables

Conflict in any form slows down the sustainable growth of an economy. Minor conflicts, however, which are manageable, have often been supportive of peace if the disputes are addressed in an appropriate fashion & involve cooperation among the concerned parties. Nonetheless, the decades long conflict in Jammu & Kashmir has not only adversely affected its society but potential economic sectors (like tourism) of the state as is made apparent by the state’s macroeconomic variables. Macroeconomic variables of an economy are perceived as an approach which can enhance social, political and economic reconciliation efforts in post-conflict settings. If macroeconomic variables are operating with sustainable principles and practices, it can have positive impacts in reducing the tensions of the host economy. Such initiatives highlight the correlational and causal relationship between the macroeconomic variables and peace and support the theory that can be helpful in alleviating conflict and accelerating peace and also there are interconnections among the ‘impact of conflict on tourism’15; ‘impact of tourism on conflict’14; and ‘impact of peace on tourism & conflict’16. It has been found from the empirical results that there is significant impact of conflict on the various macroeconomic variables of Jammu & Kashmir state (table 1).

Table 1
Regression Results of Macroeconomic Variables of J&K State
Macroeconomic Variables Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 1987.268 2.370   838.594 0.000
GSDPFC of Agriculture(X1) 1.717E-006 0.000 0.057 0.389 0.723
GSDPFC of Industry(X2) 1.500E-005 0.000 1.061 0.773 0.496
GSDPFC of Services(X3) 1.895E-005 0.000 2.908 2.367 0.099
GSDPFC of Manufacturing(X4) -4.377E-005 0.000 -1.004 -1.243 0.302
GSDPFC of Construction(X5) -3.376E-005 0.000 -1.006 -1.372 0.264
GSDPFC of Banking & Insurance(X6) 0.000 0.000 -1.907 -1.235 0.305
Gross Capital Formation(X7) 0.000 0.001 -0.115 -0.324 0.767
Net Fixed Capital Formation(X8) 0.000 0.001 0.083 0.319 0.770
Capital Expenditure(X9) -0.147 0.187 -0.494 -0.788 0.488
Fixed Capital(X10) -0.001 0.001 -2.040 -1.352 0.269
Working Capital(X11) 0.000 0.000 -0.463 -1.919 0.151
Invested Capital(X12) 0.000 0.000 -1.073 -1.188 0.320
Social Sector Expenditure(X13) 0.249 0.183 1.073 1.356 0.268
Gross Fiscal Deficit(X14) 0.409 0.200 0.831 2.049 0.133
Revenue Deficit(X15) -0.394 0.193 -0.706 -2.042 0.134
Own Tax Revenue(X16) 0.020 0.433 0.052 0.046 0.966
Own Non-Tax Revenue(X17) 0.193 0.412 0.196 0.469 0.671
Number of Workers(X18) -0.001 0.001 -1.417 -1.130 0.341
Total Person Engaged(X19) 0.001 0.000 1.338 1.549 0.219
Total Emoluments(X20) 0.004 0.003 1.505 1.510 0.228
Total Inputs(X21) 0.000 0.000 1.454 2.600 0.080
Net Value Added(X22) 5.985E-005 0.000 0.130 0.235 0.829
Tourist Inflow(X24) 0.018 0.006 0.323 3.061 0.003
Tourist Earnings(X23) 0.031 0.006 0.513 4.860 0.000
R : 1.00(Coefficient of multiple correlation)  
R Square : 0.7384(Coefficient of multiple determination)  
Adjusted R Square : 0.993  
Std. Error of the Estimate : 0.656  

From the multi-regression model analysis (table 1), it is implied that most of the macroeconomic variables were affected since 1991 which had adversely impacted the economic growth of the state economy. Taking as the whole of GSDPFC of Agricultural (X1) (b1=1.717) is not significant (p=0.723), and the coefficient resulted positive which indicates that conflict has largely impacted agriculture sector. The GSDPFC of Industry (X2) (b2=1.500, p=0.496) and the GSDPFC of Services (X3) (b3=1.895, p=0.099) and net value added (X22) (b22=5.985, p=0.829) were insignificant and their coefficients were positive which means that conflict has greatly affected the industrial and services sector of the state economy as well.

Taking together the GSDPFC of manufacturing (X4) (b4=-4.77, p=0.302); GSDPFC of construction (X5) (b5=-3.376, p=0.264); Capital Expenditure (X9) (b9=-0.147, p=0.488); Fixed Capital (X10) (b10=-0.001, p=0.269); Revenue Deficit (X15) (b15=-0.394, P=0.134); Number of Workers (X18) (b18=-0.001, p=0.341) were not significant but have negative coefficients which indicates that conflict had minor impact on these variables all together during the reference period (1991-2016).

While the GSDPFC of Banking & Insurance (X6) (b6=0.00,p=0.488); Gross capital formation (X7) (b7=0.00, p=0.767); Net Fixed Capital Formation (X8) (b8=0.000, p= 0.770); Working Capital (X11) (b11=0.000, p=0.151); Invested Capital (X12) (b12=0.000, p=0.230) and Total Inputs (X21) (b21=0.000, p=0.080) were all insignificant but having the coefficient’s zero which indicates that conflict had no impact on these variables throughout the reference period.

However, the Social Sector Expenditure (X13) (b13=0.249, p=0.268); Gross Fiscal Deficit (X14) (b14=0.409, p=0.133); Own Tax Revenue (X16) (b16=0.020, p=0.966); Own Non-tax Revenue (X12) (b12= 0.193, p=0.966); Total Person Engaged (X19) (b19=0.001, p=0.219); Total Emoluments (X20) (b20=0.004, p=0.228); were statistically insignificant having coefficients approaching to zero which indicates that conflict had low impact on these macroeconomic variables but tourist inflow (X23) (b23=0.018, p=0.003) and tourist earnings (X24) (b24=0.031, p=0.000) were statistically significant which means that these variables had not been impacted adversely so much. However, the value of R-Square in our multi-regression model(1) is 0.7384, which implies that there is 73% impact of conflict on the macroeconomic variables of Jammu & Kashmir state which halted the expected growth process of the state economy since 1989 to till date. Despite the fact, from the given regression model (2) it has been analyzed that 87.5% of growth rate of RGSDP has been affect by foreign tourist arrivals and foreign exchange rate. On the basis of this result we tried to prepare the tourism model of Jammu & Kashmir State.

lnRGSDP=0.093+0.0373 lnFTOAR+5.15 lnFER ….…………..…………….(2)

(0.17)* (0.47)* (17.80)*

R-Sq=87.5% and R-Square (adj.)=87.1%

Tourism Model of J&K State

According to regression model (2), tourism happens to be a vital source of foreign exchange earnings, can support the economic growth with equity, has a great capability to create large scale employment of diverse kinds and hence can play a major role in the creation of additional employment opportunities. Nevertheless, using the E-Views 9, the results (table 1 & table 2) of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test shows that all the variables except economic growth were not stationary at level while the Phillip Perron (PP) test suggested the presence of a unit root for the variables at level. Therefore, entire series were subjected to further test at first differencing. It is evident that all the variables achieved a stationary trend process after the first differencing for both the ADF and PP test. Hence, the null hypothesis of unit root could no longer be accepted for the variables at this level. This means that the series could be regarded to be integrated to order 1 process.

Table 2
Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test-Statistics AT
Variable Level* Intercept* Intercept & Trend* 1st Difference* Remark
lnRGSDP 0.334250
Integrated to order 1
lnFTOAR 0.226070
Integrated to order 1
lnFER 1.641598
Integrated to order 1

Source: Stationary trend at 5% level of significance

Table 3
Phillips-Perron(PP) Unit Root Test-Statistic A
Variable Level* Intercept* Intercept & Trend* 1st Difference* Remark
lnRGSDP 0.334250
Integrated to order 1
lnFTOAR 0.215731
Integrated to order 1
lnFER 1.975551
Integrated to order 1

Source: Stationary trend at 5% level of significance

The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test results indicated that all these variables were non-stationary in their levels and stationary at first difference I(1).16 Therefore, it is necessary to determine whether there is co-integrating relationship between real gross state domestic product, foreign tourist arrivals and foreign exchange earnings of the state economy by applying Johansen’s Co-integration Test which utilize both the trace and maximum Eigen statistic in determining the significance or otherwise of the co-integrated series as suggested by the unit root results. However, evidence from the trace and maximum Eigen statistics (table-1.4) revealed at least one co-integrated equation for both statistics. The existence of a co-integrated series from the result thus implies the existence of possible long-run relationship (long-run association-ship or move together) among the variables over time then we can run restricted VAR that is VECM but if the variables are not co-integrated, we cannot run VECM, rather we shall run unrestricted VAR, but our variables are co-integrated so we can easily run restricted VAR (table 4).

Table 4
Johansen’s Co-Integration Rank Test of (Trace) & (Max-Eigen Value)
No. of CE(s)
Eigen value Trace
Critical value(5%) Prob.** Max-Eigen
Critical value(5%) Prob.**
None * 0.619601 45.65614 29.79707 0.0004 39.62787 21.13162 0.0001
At most 1 0.135237 6.028276 15.49471 0.6922 5.957306 14.26460 0.6187
At most 2 0.001729 0.070970 3.841466 0.7899 0.070970 3.841466 0.7899
Trace and Max-Eigen value test indicates 1 co-integrating equation(s) at the 0.05 level.19 * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level.
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values.

Analysis of the normalized coefficients (table 5) reveals a significant long-run relationship between tourism arrival, foreign exchange earnings and real gross state domestic product (economic growth) in Jammu & Kashmir state. Importantly, a percentage change in tourist arrivals results to 3.62% change in economic growth of the state. This indicates that the degree of the responsiveness of economic growth to changes in tourism arrival is highly elastic. Foreign exchange earnings shows a significant relationship with economic growth such that a percentage change in foreign exchange earnings leads to 4.72% change in economic growth holding other factors constant. Moreover, the foreign exchange earnings coefficients show that the degree of responsiveness of economic growth to changes in foreign exchange earnings is also highly elastic within the domain of the current study.

Table 5
Johansen’s Normalized Co-Integrating Coefficients
Co-integrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -83.68552
Normalized co-integrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)  
1.000000 3.628727
Table 6
Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)
Error Correction D(ln_RGSDP) D(ln_FTOAR) D(ln_FER) Prob.
CointEq1 -1.031109 -0.032709 -0.051941 0.000
Std. Error (0.09912) (0.07138) (0.03674)  
t-value [-10.40313] [-0.45823] [-1.41360]  

The vector error correction model was applied given the existence of a co-integration thus it become imperative to determine the direction of causality between economic growth, tourism arrival and foreign exchange earnings in Jammu & Kashmir state. We find that there is long-run causality running from FTOAR and FER to RGSDP because our error correction term means that RGSDP has negative sign and is significant.17 However, in order to show the short-run relationship running from FTOAR and FER to RGSDP we have to use Wald Test.

Table 7
Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Of Wald Test
Test Statistic FTOAR FER Probability
F-statistic 36.03216 27.77543 0.0000
Chi-square 108.0965 83.32630 0.0000
Null Hypothesis: C(5)=C(6)=C(7)=0 Null Hypothesis: C(8)=C(9)=C(10)=0

In the above table it is evident that the value of ?? is highly significant at 5% level of significance, therefore, we accept the null hypothesis which means that there is short-run causality running from tourist arrivals and foreign exchange earnings to economic growth of the state economy. Henceforth, it is proved that tourism sector has both long-run as well as short-run causality running from GSDP to other economic variables of the state economy during the conflict situation. So any underperformance in this sector would be detrimental for the growth of state economy. To determine the nature of the causal relationship among the included variables in the growth model, the study is further tested to a granger causality test.

Table 8
Granger Causality Test
Null hypothesis F-Statistics Probability
Ln_FTOAR does not Granger Cause Ln_RGSDP
Ln_RGSDP_does not Granger Cause Ln_FTOAR
Ln_FER does not Granger Cause Ln_RGSDP
Ln_RGSDP does not Granger Cause Ln_FER
Ln_FER does not Granger Cause Ln_FTOAR
Ln_FTOAR does not Granger Cause Ln_FER
0.0439 0.6285

The results presented in table (8) shows that the causal relationship between foreign tourist arrival and foreign exchange earnings indicates no causality from either side. It could be observed that neither economic growth granger causes foreign exchange earnings nor foreign exchange earnings granger causes economic growth. However, it is important to note here that unidirectional causality runs from tourist arrivals to economic growth; exchange earnings to economic growth and tourist arrivals at 5% level of significance. This implies that tourism causes growth but no evidence of causality is observed that growth causes tourism arrival. Hence, it could be easily concluded that it is the natural advantage which causes growth of tourism flow in J&K in general and Valley of Kashmir in particular.

Policy Conclusion

The conflict has torn down the hopes of J&K and in particular of the valley as it has adversely affected the economy and the large chunk of masses involved in the trade. However, dancing around the fire does not offer a resolution. In spite of a stream of strong words and announcements made by the past rulers of the State and the centre, nothing concrete has been done in order to introduce a suitable economic reinforcement plan; rather the situation has taken a leap for the worse. Therefore, in order to revive the sector there is an pressing need to invite all the stakeholders and develop a scheme providing requisite motivations & concessions, to ‘put the state back on the confidence map 17 so that the state economy, especially tourism sector would cope with the difficult situation and regain the sheen of its normal functioning and thereby would engage the masses in great numbers and benefit the state economy as well. It is imperative to develop resilience18 and adaptation19 among the indigenous population so that the system will function in a way that could be similar to or more efficient than the way it did before the disturbance.20 While framing a comprehensive strategy, following points are suggested:

Formulate a tidy and inclusive image of the state’s tourism sector and broadcast to the world by various smart and effective means.

Counter seriously and efficiently the negative image of the state created by the vested interest groups.

Highlight natural and heritage wealth of the state:

Mughal Gardens;

Mohanmarg a place in Bandipora where Sir Aurel Stein-a far-famed and highly acclaimed Hungarian born and British explorer, lived most of his life;

Parihaspora-ancient archeological monument site – a place 20 km away from

Srinagar towards north;

Holy and historically famous Shrines, Khankahs, Mosques and Maqbaras;

Silk Route remnants in Leh, Kargil and Kashmir valley;

Arts and Crafts of the state;

Important Temples and gompas;

Trekking and skiing sites;

Stay in house boat in world famous lake.

Manage cultural events at potential places.

Hold tourism festivals at prospective spots inside and outside the region.

Highlight the state as a cost-effective tourist destination.

Offer package tourism.

Establishment of separate market for tourists where there is complete availability of every commodity at reasonable prices.

Enhance the appeal of the city and all other tourist places.

Easy access for the tourist to solve their difficulties and problems, if any, by providing a unique contact number.

The ascending performance of the tourism sector would engage the masses in countless ways and advantage the state economy as well. All of this could help go a long way in bringing prosperity and therefore peace to the state.


I am thankful to Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR), New Delh for providing me the fellowship without which it is impossible to do any kind of research in general and this study in particular.

End Notes


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  2. Final Report of 20 Year Perspective Plan for Sustainable Development of Tourism in Jammu & Kashmir, Ministry of Tourism, Government of India, New Delhi
  3. Priyanka, B., & Sumeet, B. (n.d). ‘Kashmir Conflict: ‘A study of what led to the insurgency in kashmir valley & Proposed Future Solutions’. New Delhi India.
  4. Bruce, P.L. (2004). ‘War & Peace: An Analysis of the Kashmir Issue and a Possible Path to Peace’. Washington, DC,
  5. Reserve Bank of India, Yearly Bulletin, 1989-2017.
  6. Afsir, K. (AVSM) (2007). ‘An analysis of the Turmoil in Jammu & Kashmir: Present Situation and Future Prospects’, Forum for Strategic & Security Studies (FSSS), New Delhi India.
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  10. Impact of terrorism on Jammu & Kashmir’s Ecology and Economy (2017). European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS), Excellence, Genuineness & Authenticity, Amsterdam,
  11. Human Rights Watch, (2006) Everyone Lives in Fear: Patterns of Impunity in Jammu & Kashmir 18,. 11
  12. Zachary, J., Corey, S., Bartosz, S., & Farha, T. (n.d). Economic development as tool to reduce secessionism in Jammu & Kashmir Robert M. Lafollette, School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin Madison.
  13. Chindu S. (2009). ‘Reporting Kashmir: An analysis of the conflict coverage in Indian and Pakistani Newspapers’. A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement of Bournemouth University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
  14. Sumantra, B., ‘Kashmir: (2003). Roots of Conflict, Paths to Peace’. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London, England,
  15. Bhat, G.M. (edition) (2007). ‘The Jammu & Kashmir Economy’. 90th annual conference of Indian Economic Association (IEA) in collaboration with postgraduate department of economics, University of Kashmir (J&K), India.
  16. Misri, M.L., & Bhat, M.S. (1994). ‘Poverty, planning and economic development in Jammu & Kashmir’. Vikas Publishing House New Delhi India.
  17. Jasbir, S. (2004). ‘The Economy of Jammu & Kashmir’. Radha Krishan Anand & Co., Jammu 1(J&K), India.
  18. Khera, M.K., Sharma, B.D., & Majid, H. (ed.) (1991). ‘Energy problems and prospects: Studies on Jammu & Kashmir’. Concept Publishing Company, New Delhi India
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